In this edition of Sustainability Decoded, Field Decoder Scott Fisher shares the challenges and promise of fleet electrification and its essential role in corporate sustainability strategy. Scott is a lecturer at Columbia University in the Sustainability Management program, and an executive at a technology startup.
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It wasn’t supposed to happen this way. Judging by projections made earlier this decade, we should, in 2026, be well on our way to a massive scale-up in corporate fleet electrification. In 2020, McKinsey projected 8 million fleet EVs in the US by 2030.[1] In 2021 EV100 member companies, a group of corporations focused on fleet decarbonization, pledged to put 4.8 million electric vehicles into operation by 2030.[2]
These projections were driven not just by sustainability pledges, but by good economics. In 2021, BCG predicted that, by 2025, EVs would be advantaged on Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) in "most key markets" compared to traditional ICE vehicles.[3]
The reality on the ground is now far different. As of 2026, there are perhaps 60,000 electric trucks on US roads[4] (many of which are operated by Amazon, which has continued to roll-out its electric fleet). Fleet electrification features far less prominently in corporate sustainability reports, with companies walking back pledges or talking about reductions in “emissions intensity” rather than emissions. In some cases, companies are ramping up purchases of biofuels, which do help meet short-term carbon reductions targets, but are limited in their ability to scale (among other well-documented challenges).
This pull-back is understandable. Despite many companies making credible fleet electrification efforts, the barriers were too significant. But those barriers are now much better understood and, in some cases, are going away. Times are changing, and conditions are better for companies to reconsider advancing fleet electrification efforts.
Why it didn’t take initially
TCO savings didn’t materialize. The idea of higher upfront purchase costs being paid for by subsequent lower fuel and OPEX costs made sense on a spreadsheet, but not in the real world. With low EV truck volumes, the cost to purchase a heavy duty electric variety ended up more than 2x the equivalent diesel variety. Potential operational savings were limited with growing utility rates, and the higher insurance and maintenance costs associated with any new technology.
Trucking became less profitable. Logistics as a whole experienced a boom during the pandemic, and the ensuing downturn in the industry meant less capital for new electrification investments.
The challenge of adding charging was underestimated. Projects got delayed significantly as fleets were taken by surprise with the time to obtain complicated multi-MW service from utilities. Even when service did arrive, the cost of the charging projects was often millions of dollars, further eroding the economic benefits of electrification.
Operational changes were highly complex. Corporations have been able to add renewable electricity relatively seamlessly, a renewable power purchase agreement is largely a financial transaction. Adding an EV fleet required determining which routes could work with the vehicle range, how to incorporate charging time, driver and mechanic training, and a host of other complexities.
Catalysts for a turnaround?
These conditions won’t go away overnight, but enough has changed for fleet electrification to be back on the corporate sustainability agenda.
A main driver will be the Tesla semi, which is starting volume manufacturing in 2026. At around $300,000, the vehicle will still carry a premium over diesel 18 wheelers, but much less of one than existing electric alternatives while also having significantly better range and faster charging options. It is, according to one fleet operator “the kind of thing that truly catalyzes change”[5]
Fleets looking to electrify also have a more capable charging supply chain. Many utilities have EV outreach teams, and companies building EV charging depots now have five years’ experience of securing land and permits, obtaining utility interconnections, and constructing and maintaining sites. Corporate fleets can now go into their EV charging projects with a more mature understanding of cost and schedule.
In California, fleets can also take advantage of a handful of fleet-focused EV charging sites that have been built by companies such as Prologis, Greenlane, EV Realty, Terawatt, Voltera and others.
Finally, the war in Iran has reminded us of the cost of fossil fuel dependence.
Taken together, none of this means we can restore our optimism from earlier this decade. But it does mean we can put a realistic discussion about the potential for fleet electrification’s benefits back on the corporate sustainability agenda.
[1] McKinsey & Company, "Charging electric-vehicle fleets: How to seize the emerging opportunity," March 2020.
[2] Climate Group, "EV100 Progress and Insights Report 2021: The EV revolution is here," February 2021.
[3] Boston Consulting Group, "The Future of the Auto & Mobility Industry," December 2021.
[4] CALSTART, "Zeroing in on Zero-Emission Trucks: January 2026 Market Update," January 27, 2026.
[5] Spector, Julian, "Tesla Semis are about to hit the road. That’s good news for California," Canary Media, May 1, 2026.